The picture of climate can be bleak.
Early estimates suggest that the 2022 peak in greenhouse gas emissions, which are responsible for climate change, was reached. Climate disasters are erupting at an alarming rate. 2022 saw record heatwaves in China and Europe. In Pakistan, devastating floods killed more than 1,000 people and forced millions to flee their homes.
However, a closer look at the energy and emissions data from around the globe shows that there are some bright spots and potential for progress.
Renewable sources, for example, make up a larger portion of the energy supply and are becoming more affordable every year. Unprecedented public investments can unlock technological advancements. Countries have set new emissions reduction targets.
Continue reading to discover why there are some reasons to be optimistic.
The peak of emissions is not far away, even though they reached new highs in 2022.
According to the Global Carbon Project, 2022 saw an increase in emissions from fossil fuel sources than ever before. The global growth rate was just above 1% year-over-year, continuing the rebound from the 2020 low due to the covid-19 pandemic. Emissions have more than doubled over the past 40 years.
While global emissions increased, many countries already have their own plateaus or are beginning to decline. The US' 2005 peak in remissions was reached and has declined just slightly by 10% since. Emissions have plateaued in Russia, Japan, Europe, and the European Union.
According to the International Energy Agency, global emissions will reach their maximum in 2025. The first step towards turning the ship around in greenhouse gas emissions is to reach the maximum annual emission. This milestone is significant.
However, emissions continue to rise in certain countries, such as China, the world's leading emitter, and India, which both have expanding populations and economies. China has seen its emissions almost double in the last 15 years, which is a particularly dramatic increase.
China's government has committed to achieving its emission peak by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060. CarbonBrief analysis suggests that the peak could be reached in 2025 or earlier. The country is rapidly deploying renewables at an unprecedented rate, nearly quadrupling its installations in the last decade.
India's increase in emissions is less than China's but it will likely continue to grow until 2040 or 2050. Its total emissions are much lower than those of China, the US, and is far behind other countries in terms of per capita emissions.
Economic growth is less dependent upon fossil fuels
While emissions have increased with economic growth in the past, it is possible to reduce them without sacrificing economic benefits. Economic growth could be possible even without an increase in climate pollution as renewable energy becomes more widespread and technical improvements drive efficiency.
Some countries have begun to reduce their emissions while still achieving economic growth. It is vital that developing countries do the same.
The global carbon intensity of economic growth has been declining over time. This means that the carbon emissions associated to the same level economic activity have declined. This is true for large economies such as the US and EU, but also globally. This trend is evident in China, where carbon intensity has fallen by around 40% since 2000.
China's carbon intensity remains higher than most large countries. Progress has slowed due to the high percentage of coal in China's energy mix, which is about 60% as of 2021.
Reality check: Climate progress must happen even faster
Although emissions are decreasing in some areas of the world, they are not falling everywhere. However, many countries aren't moving fast enough to meet international climate goals.
The Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate, was adopted in 2015. It sets a goal to maintain a temperature increase of less than 2 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels and ideally, less than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Researchers have calculated the maximum levels of greenhouse gas emissions required to meet these targets using climate models. We've almost spent the entire global carbon budget.
Our carbon budget could have been stretched further into the future if we had begun cutting emissions sooner. This would allow for more gradual cuts. To keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world must reduce its emissions by half by 2030. Even that may not be enough.
It is possible to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, but this goal is becoming increasingly difficult. Global surface temperatures have risen by approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1900. This means that we are already very close to meeting our global targets. The future temperature rise will depend on emissions. Therefore, we need to reduce emissions as soon as possible to maintain the 1.5 degree Celsius target.
It is clear that renewable energy can be used to slow climate change. It doesn't matter if you consider it good news or not, the future will be determined by the actions taken today and in the future.
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By: Casey Crownhart
Title: A few pieces of good news on climate change (and a reality check)
Sourced From: www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/23/1067190/good-news-on-climate-change/
Published Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2023 16:17:13 +0000
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