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First reported by MIT Technology Review in December, this crude attempt at solar geoengineering in Baja California by an American entrepreneur has prompted widespread criticism. Now, the Mexican government wants to ban such experiments.
Luke Iseman is a former director of hardware at Y Combinator. He also cofounded a geoengineering startup. He claims that he wanted the balloons to reach high altitude and burst under pressure, then release the particles into open air.
Scientists think that spraying enough sulfur dioxide or other reflective particles in the stratosphere might be capable of reducing some degree of global warming. This would mimic the cooling effect from major volcanic eruptions. It's controversial because of unknown side effects. There are concerns that discussing this possibility could compromise the urgency of addressing the root causes of climate changes.
Iseman admitted to MIT Technology Review and other outlets that covered the endeavor that he did not seek government or scientific approval before proceeding with the balloon launches. To commercialize the idea, he co-founded Make Sunsets, a startup. According to the company, it has raised approximately $750,000 in venture capital. It also plans to sell cooling credits for particles that are released from future balloon launches.
On January 13, Mexico's Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources declared that it will ban and, where necessary, stop any solar geoengineering projects within the country. The agency pointed out that Make Sunset's launch was done without consent or notice. The agency stated that the prohibition was motivated primarily by geoengineering risks, the absence of international agreements supervising such efforts, as well as the need to protect communities, the environment, and communities.
Mexico could be the first nation, if it is not the initial, to ban experiments. However, many countries have environmental regulations or other policies that may restrict certain practices. The statement doesn't make it clear that all research in this field will be banned. This could also include lab work and modeling. Mexico will also stop large-scale solar geoengineering, as this could mean that large experiments are being conducted or the full deployment of the technology.
Representatives of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and of the Government of Baja California could not be reached immediately for comment.
"Indefinitely on Hold"
Iseman didn't reply to a question from MIT Technology Review and said that future launches are "indefinitely" on hold. He told The Verge that he was surprised by the speed and breadth of the response and that he had "expected and hoped to have dialogue."
Others weren't surprised. Shuchi Talati is an American University scholar-in-residence who is forming a non-profit focused on governance in solar geoengineering. In the original article, MIT Technology Review warned that Make Sunsets could have a chilling impact on the field. She stated that the unauthorized effort could reduce government support for geoengineering research, and increase demands to limit experiments.
Long-standing opponents of geoengineering took advantage of the news and said that Make Sunset's efforts showed that research can lead to rapid deployment. The Center for International Environmental Law praised Mexico's response, calling on all governments to "ban solar geoengineering outdoor research, technology development and deployment."
Critics often claim that outdoor geoengineering activities are already prohibited under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. This assertion is repeated in the Mexican government’s statement. Geoengineering experts have long maintained that this is an error. The claim is "inaccurate" on multiple counts, according to a 2016 paper that highlighted "five solar geoengineering tropes which have outstayed their welcome".
Both geoengineering experts and field researchers criticized the decision not to approve the launch of the balloons from Mexico. Talati stated in an email that the nation's response "highlights how recklessly this company acted." "It is unacceptable to travel to another country to conduct experiments without consulting or engaging.
Iseman stated that he launched Make Sunsets in order to combat climate change's rising dangers. He hoped that he would be able to push ahead a scientific field that has, despite public criticism, repeatedly faced serious challenges in carrying out small-scale field research.
Geoengineering researchers still have to grapple with the implications of this episode and its reaction for the field.
An increasing number of countries and universities are establishing formal research programs. A few scientists are also working on outdoor controlled experiments that can be done at small scales. This includes the long-running Harvard research project to study atmospheric balloons. Australian researchers have already conducted and gathered data from the first field experiment in marine cloud brightness, which involves spraying salt particles to increase the reflectiveness of coastal clouds.
The idea is now more mainstream in science, but it has also raised concerns. Numerous scholars from a range of fields demanded an "International Non-Use Agreement on Solar Geoengineering" in early last year. It calls for countries to ban outdoor experiments, and for national funding agencies to stop supporting the development of solar geengineering technologies.
"A strong humanitarian case"
Geoengineering researchers insist that they are interested in exploring the potential of this technology as it could save lives.
Holly Buck, who wrote After Geoengineering. Climate Tragedy. Repair and Restoration in an MIT Technology Review op ed arguing against the ban. We don't know all the implications of it. There is strong humanitarian argument for learning more.
It's also believed that any nation or actor will execute it regardless of risks and the lack of international consensus. Because it's cheap and easy to spray materials into space, many believe that it's inexorable. Some argue that it is better to conduct research that can identify dangerous dangers or highlight the most efficient way of geoengineering before large-scale releases are made.
"The need for understanding the limitations and possible side effects of climate intervention is made more obvious by the recognition that other countries, or the private sector, may decide to conduct intervention experiments without the U.S. Government," said the authors of a 2017 study in which the US Global Change Research Program (which guides federally funded climate research) recommended geoengineering studies as the first step.
Scientists expressed the main concern to MIT Technology Review that Make Sunsets's rudimentary balloon launches, and attempts at commercialization would distort public perceptions of the field and influence policymakers.
Peter Irvine, University College London lecturer in climate change research and solar geoengineering, says that there is a danger that serious scientists and carefully conducted experiments are portrayed the same way as someone who released a weather balloon and made a buck.
He adds that "many of us think seriously about this idea… because it seems like it has potential to significantly decrease the risk of global climate change." "We shouldn’t throw out the baby with the bathwater. That’s the problem."
Irvine said that he isn't sure if there was or will be any chilling effect. He also noted that it wasn't clear that the Mexican government had supported geoengineering research. He doesn't think that the incident would be enough to cause the US federal government not to rescind its plans to create a research program or guidelines, or discourage scientists from exploring the field further.
'A deep need'
According to Gernot Wagner, who is a Columbia Business School climate economist and has been closely studying geoengineering issues, a moratorium on solar geoengineering deployment is appropriate at this point. He stresses, however, that it is crucial to allow research to enable scientists to try to fill in the gaps.
However, the consequences of this controversy might not be all bad news for the field.
Talati believes that the Make Sunsets incident will inspire more countries to create clear guidelines for research or encourage the creation of international oversight agreements.
Other observers point out that the negative reaction to the company's actions, the lack of market demand and Mexico's forceful response may discourage other for-profit solar geoengineering startups, or unapproved, selffunded launches.
Still, most geoengineering researchers who MIT Technology Review interviewed agreed that a venture-capital-backed startup forging ahead in a foreign country without approval, striving to move fast and disrupt this area of research, was a terrible look. It could lead to a negative perception of scientific fields that have already proven extremely difficult to advance even with the smallest experiments.
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By: James Temple
Title: What Mexico’s planned geoengineering restrictions mean for the future of the field
Sourced From: www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/20/1067146/what-mexicos-planned-geoengineering-restrictions-mean-for-the-future-of-the-field/
Published Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2023 16:53:31 +0000
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